A presenter at a seminar I attended long ago introduced a new term, Groupthink. The lesson was important and unforgettable. Understanding Groupthink’s characteristics helps us recognize it when we see it and avoid its pitfalls.
The lecturer that day described this phenomenon as occurring when people have similar ideologies and who strive for consensus within their group. The desire to conform can be so strong that individuals will set aside their own personal beliefs and adopt the opinions of the rest of the group.
That speaker used the Bay of Pigs disaster as an example of Groupthink. He explained how President John F. Kennedy had decided to assault Cuba and depose Fidel Castro. Our military recruited and trained an army of exiled Cubans for this mission. Kennedy thought Castro was incapable of mounting a defense and could be overthrown with little resistance. That mistake in thinking resulted in one of history’s major miscalculations and a total defeat.
President Kennedy realized that his advice came from people who were either loyal to the point they did not oppose his decision, or they did not seek outside opinions. He had picked his brother, Bobby, as Attorney General and brother-in-law Sargent Schriver as a part of his administration. He relied on those advisors and other close friends.
After the Bay of Pigs fiasco, President Kennedy called in advisors who had broad knowledge of international affairs. It was not long until it was discovered that Russia was installing missile sites in Cuba. These were only ninety miles from Florida. Surveillance also revealed that Russian ships carrying rockets with nuclear capability were sailing toward Cuba.
Experienced advisors met with President Kennedy and discussed a wide range of solutions. Men with a vast knowledge of Russia’s Premier, Nikita Khrushchev, believed it was possible to call his bluff. President Kennedy sent a message to Khrushchev that our navy would meet those Russian ships if they did not turn around and go back. The Cuban Missile Crisis was a very frightening and dangerous few days. Khrushchev blinked first. The ships reversed course and returned to Russia. The rocket launch pads in Cuba were dismantled and a thermonuclear war was avoided (www.britannica. com/event/Cuban-missilecrisis).
Sociologists have identified several Groupthink characteristics. Illusions of unanimity lead members to believe that everyone agrees and feels the same way. This makes it difficult to speak out when it appears that everyone in the group is on the same page. Unquestioned beliefs lead members to ignore possible moral problems and not consider the consequences (Group/ www.verywellmind.com/whatis- groupthink-2795213/).
Self-censorship causes people who might have doubts to hide their misgivings. Rather than sharing what they know, people remain quiet and assume that the group must know best. “Mindguards” function as selfappointed censors to hide problematic information from the group. They keep quiet or actively prevent sharing (Group).
Illusions of invulnerability lead group members to be overly optimistic and engage in risktaking. When no one speaks out or voices an alternative opinion, people believe that the group must be right (Group).
We remember the space shuttle Challenger disaster. Students from across the nation watched, as did my own, because Teacher in Space Christa McAuliffe was aboard. It was heart-wrenching to see the explosion. We will always remember exactly where we were when it occurred.
Evaluations of what went wrong centered on the O-ring. The temperature that morning was only several degrees above freezing. This caused these Orings to become brittle, allowing hot, fiery gases to burn out from the side of the booster rocket (msn.com/en-us/news/ us/william-r-lucas-nasa-officialblamed- in-challenger-disasterdies- at-102/).
The director of the Challenger program, William R. Lucas, was known for his rigid, strongwilled dictatorial leadership style. He discouraged those beneath him from reporting faults and failures. This exacerbated an already insular culture in which Marshall engineers shared as little information as possible with others outside their group (msn. com).
Engineers had warned repeatedly about the danger of the Orings at cold temperatures. Leaders ignored them. The pressure to launch was intense because of other delays. The entire nation was prepared to watch. This led to a decision that took seven lives (msn.com).
What lessons can we learn from Groupthink? I submit that we are witnessing a classic example of Groupthink in the Musk/Trump administration. Every cabinet member chosen by President Trump is one of his fervent loyalists. They support him completely in every action and decision, regardless of how controversial these have been.
In my view, America will see this presidency ending with massive failures, all because of Groupthink and the conformity of everyone involved in leadership. History not only repeats itself. It echoes. Time will tell if my predictions prove to be true.